Upsideology

May 20, 2008

A Question of Upsideology

Laotzu Let's begin with a philosophical question:  If we all know he will be a sleeper, is he still a sleeper?

We know JOEY DORSEY is gonna be a player in this league.  Time and again, we have seen how pogo-sticks like Dorsey can make a difference on a team.  We know he'll be a fan favorite and a web-darling.  We know that any team that drafts him will feel blessed that he fell that far.  At worst, an energy guy off the bench and an alley-oop machine.  At best, a defensive stopper and an alley-oop machine.

And yet, the best draft analysts around rate him as no better than a second round pick.

Chad Ford: 45.

NBADraft.net: 39.

DraftExpress: 47

Remind me again why you pick another undersized shooting guard, a big man "project", or DJ Augustine over Dorsey?

February 28, 2008

UPSIDEOLOGY: Video Edition

Forget analysis, let's just revel in pure potential and ridiculosity:

Okay. One point of analysis.  It has pretty much become a foregone conclusion that Beasley will be the number one.  [Only the outside chance that the #1 team drafting has a PF changes this up.]  BUT, does drafting a ridiculously athletic power forward give a team the best chance to build a championship contender?  I say not.  Let me count the ways: Amare, Kenyon Martin, Elton Brand, Antonio McDyess, Laphonso Ellis, Grandmama, CWebb, DC, Barkley, Karl...is this just a coincidence?  Those PFs who have won (Duncan, Rasheed,  McHale, perhaps soon KG) are really long-skilled forwards.  They have not been the highlight reelers or power bowlers. Past experience tells us that to build a championship, ridonk athletic PFs either wear out their knees or star on a team that becomes good, but never great...

Beasley aka the Creature

Derrick Rose aka the Great Poohdini

Nicholas Batum aka the French Jew (okay, the narrator probably meant "jewel," but who's counting?)

Danilo Gallinari aka Gallo ("rooster") aka the Flying Cannoli

Ricky Rubio aka Pistola aka Ru-Bee-Oh (Hook, anyone?)

February 23, 2008

The Golden Ticket aka Amir Johnson

Amir2Long and far we have searched for its quixotic charms, its elusive impermeability.  And, as Need4Sheed would rock it, its Amirzing.  Yes, ladies and gentlemen, I believe the SKY-HOOK IS BACK...

Click here to catch the Golden Ticket (courtesy of Need4Sheed courtesy of the Detroit Pistons and myTV20 Detroit)...it's a beautiful thing.


February 18, 2008

The King is Dead; Long Live the King

Sword_in_the_stone_5 We've become weary of the hype. 

We've become hype-resistant.  We've learned to resist the charms of snake oil salesman like Walton or charlatans like Stephen A.  We've learned to wait. 

We've been fooled before.

When Jordan's heir was to be revealed, we were impatient, impetuous.  We saw hope in every Miner.  We tried to climb a Hill, save a Penny, catch Vinsanity, and double-down on a Stackhouse.  We pushed young Tracy forth, only to skewer him when we were wrong.  Desperate, we even tried to saddle a young Rider no matter how violently he bucked.  After one heir Jordan after another failed to pull the sword from the stone, finally, we became patient.  Kobe?  Let the young man prove himself.

And yet, distracted by the search for the one that would resemble Jordan the most, we had missed the heir all along.  The next Jordan was Shaq.  For a decade and a half, Shaq has reigned over the Lig, balling like no man had done, like no man should be able to do.  He defied imagination.  He entertained like no other.  He was Superman.

Now, the boy wonder has grown old.  A month and a half ago, I wrote a guest post on Free Darko about the death of Superman.  Sad protests aside, Shaq's career has reached its end.  In the end, Kerr's court will indeed be proven the Fool.  No Phoenix rise.  No crown for Nash. 

And yet, I was wrong too.  I erred as they did and so many others: we saw Shaq as Superman, and assumed Superman was Shaq.  In the end, we mistook the man for the myth.  He may not be scoping golf courses in Phoenix, but ladies and gentleman, Superman has returned.

The King is dead; long live the King!

It was fitting that Shaq was absent from All-Star weekend.  It is time to move on.  If NOLA showed us anything, it was that we do, indeed, have an heir among us.  There's only one catch: which one is he?  Was NOLA the time when Lebron became King or when Dwight became Superman?

                       Nba_a_jamehowa_580_3

 

January 04, 2008

Redefining Potential: The Dumars Doctrine

Nymphs_and_the_satyr_3 I have yet to meet the Lig die-hard who is not smitten by the muse Potential.  She's a dream and an ideologoy all at once. For my own public confession see: Confession

But Potential is getting old.  Plucked and attached from dandy to dandy, gratingly talked about but little discussed, Potential has become a titillating and tortured fascination.  I'm not sure that Potential can ever be tamed, but I could use a fresh dose of nuance to help define my muse. 

We usually associate Potential with young 7-footers, diaper dunkers, and other assorted adolescents.  But what separates the good teams from the great is their GMs' abilities to identify players with Mid-Career Upside (MCU).  Tonight's Pistons-Raps game was a perfect example of what I would call the Dumars Doctrine.*  From Chauncey to the Body, from Corliss to Mike James, and now to Jarvis Hayes, Dumars has made a second career out of identifying and acquiring players who excelled as veterans. 

[Now, to be specific, I wouldn't put Sheed in this group because although he has thrived in Detroit his play has been closer to career rebirth than mid-career development.  Some more in this group that could be easily mistaken for having high MCU are the crafty veterans like Horry, Finley, and Cassell.  Rip was definitely never an MCU guy; he was traded for Stackhouse.  And while Tayshaun and Maxiell were draft day sleepers (soon to add Stuckey and Afflalo to that group,) they bloomed into legitimate gamers by the end of their first two years in the Lig.]

MCU comes in a few different forms. Here's three major MCU classifications I see:

  • The Euro: Part of what sometimes gets lost in the Sarunas_styldiscussion of the euroinvasion is that many Euros (I'm including Argentinians) come into the Lig as veterans.  Too often they're associated with 20-year olds who haven't yet played the game at any professional level.  Whether drafted or signed, Euros with MCU enter the Lig as the equivalent to a second to fourth year pro. 

          Some examples: Manu, Jorge Garbajosa, Hermann, and the 
          12th-man legend  Jasikevicius Livingston

  • The Lame: Pretty self-explanatory.  Drafted high or low, these guys got injured early on and now have potential to become gamers.

          Some examples: Emeka Okafor, Shaun LivingstonChandler

  • The Late Bloomer: Chauncey is the definition of a late bloomer.

          Some other examples: Tyson Chandler, Hedo, Andre Miller's
          gonna be the next star of this group as soon as he's traded

To be clear, I don't want to get rid of draft-day upsideology.  I want to differentiate between some of the guises of Potential.  And of course there are misses with mid-career development assessment.  The Lakers bet Kwame's MCU was worth Tough Juice.  Caught in the maddening gaze of Potential, they were sadly seduced.

_____________________________________________________________________
*Although for me, the storyline of the night was how solidly the Raptors played.  While it's been pretty much clarified in the last two weeks that--barring injury or scandal--the Celts and the Pistons are gonna meet in the ECF, the Raps demonstrated that they may be the leading contender for making a playoff run in the East and taking key steps toward contending status.

December 07, 2007

Raising 'Em Right: The Conversation Begins

Img_8288_2
The internets is a miraculous thing.  Across the web, there's been some truly great analysis in response to yesterday's post.  It's gots me doin some more thinkin.

I.

Culture is certainly a question that I did not look at enough.  PhDribbler-Reader Sebring raises the Pistons' counter-example, Carlos Delfino:Delfinodarko

"Carlos Delfino is a better example of a player who did his time in Detroit and now is flourishing in Toronto...The Raptors have more international content. On Detroit, he never got the minutes to play through mistakes, while in Toronto, with a big jump in minutes, he's become a quality rotation player with upside. Delfino is an introvert, and this initially caused Sam Mitchell to question his effort, but now Mitchell has admitted that he didn't understand Delfino - the passion is there, it just isn't expressed outwardly with grunts, scowls, shouts, fist pumps. I wonder if the Detroit staff understood Delfino as well as Mitchell has come to in a short period of time."

Memoisachamp He has a great point.  Dumars' recent record has certainly suggested that he has trouble developing Euros (although let's look back at the way-back machine in 2004 when Memo became the first Turkish player to win an NBA championship.  Many fans underplay the success with the imported-Memo as a significant factor in Dumars' confidence in drafting Darko.  And has Okur fared better in Utah?)  Nonetheless, that should not discount the culture question.  Phoenix and now Toronto have shown that they can develop non-American players by creating Euro-friendly systems.

Secondly, and I may be wrong, and I hope I am because I continue to be a big Delfino fan, but I'm not sure the Toronto honeymoon will last.  Remember, Detroit didn't just give up on Delfino.  In fact, they traded away Maurice Evans for a second round pick to the Lakers because they wanted to clear time for Carlos.  He was a mess last year.  Not understanding the system, out of control, and turnover prone.  SjacksnewtatCompare that to how Jarvis Hayes is playing this year.  I hope Carlos' successes continue in Canada, but I'm skeptical.

I would take Sebring's point further.  We often talk about the Spurs creating a professional culture.  But Adande nicely lays down an alternative example of creating a team culture in his column about Gstate today: "Warrior World: Crazy, Beautiful, and Dangerous Basketball."

.

II. 

The other major question that has been brought up on the blogosphere is how much we can expect NBA teams to develop players.  Henry Abbott over at Truehoop writes,

[Player development is] also a rare skill. There are plenty of top level strategists and motivators who are not great teachers.

There is also simply not time, in many cases. One-on-one personal development is something that is squeezed into spare moments, as Bucks assistant Tony Brown described to me the other day:Bucksdoll2

"I think when we watch the game we think of a player like Yi, and you can imagine you have all this time for skill development. Spending eight hours a day teaching him about the NBA game, but with the NBA schedule, you don't have that kind of time, right?  No, not really. We generally get to spend some time before and after practice with a lot of our guys. Either with skill stuff on the floor or maybe sitting down, showing them some edits of some games."

Abbott goes right for the jugular here.  And that is why he's one of the best.  This is the key question!  Do NBA teams invest enough time in player development? It's telling that the negative assessment comes from a Bucks' assistant coach.  Would Pop ever make that statement?  Phil? D'Antoni (is it non-pc if we gave him the Native American nickname: Man Who Stomps His Foot?)?  Riles probably would make that statement because he's an a-hole.  I assume Tony Brown is a perfectly nice guy, but what he is describing is the lack of investment in player development in the Bucks organization, not in the Lig. 

Compare that to Jazz GM Kevin O'Connor's statements on today's Daily Dish.  O'Connor talks to Chad Ford about the emergence of Ronnie Brewer as a legit NBAller.  Was it the shoes?  Well, O'Connor says,

Continuity is just as important, even more important than change...We look at guys who want to get better. And that's one of the things we evaluate when we sit down and talk to a player...Look at Deron Williams.  Each year he got better...and he's continued to prove that...in the pros.  Take a look at a kid like Millsap.  Everyone looks at a player and says what he can't do.  We try to look at a player and say what he can do...Sloanbeingsloan

I would give Ronnie [Brewer] a lot of credit.  We expressed some of the things he needed to do improve his shooting.  I think Jerry can say things to players very succinctly and very direct...He said to Ronnie, "When we played Denver, and you were in the game, and you had to be in the game for some minutes, they put Marcus Camby on you.  Now, does that tell you anything.  And give Ronnie a lot of credit.  He went home and became a better shooter, if you look at his free throw %, it's way up to even where it was in college.  And he spent the time getting stronger, getting physically more able to compete in the NBA...

One of the key phrases you hear over and over around the Lig that O'Connor repeats to Ford: "We try and put players in positions where they can succeed."  The question is: what teams actually do this? Utah, yes.  Waukee...?


PokernigtIII.

Now, is this true for every player?  Can every talented player be plugged into the right system and flourish?  Of course not.  This is where it gets difficult (but exactly where we find the type of unanswerable arguments that we relish as fans.) 

You have to start with the superstar exception.  Lebrand, he was gonna make himself a star wherever he went.  Evidence: he's made himself a star under the Ferry regime.  Likewise, Tom Ziller (great blogger check him out at the FanHouse and Sactown Royalty) writes,

LeBron and draftmates Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade -- every single one has had more than one coach in their NBA careers, and three of the four have had multiple front-office regimes. Only Wade could be considered to have a stable developmentMusselman environment through his first four years in the league, and he's been dealing with Pat Riley's yo-yo act the entire time....Player development outside the umbrella of the team works; I know this for I am a Kevin Martin fan. And I know Eric Musselman didn't teach Kevin Martin squat. 

Totally agree.  And Ziller goes on:

In last four years, there have been 73 NBA head coaches for the 30 teams. (This isn't counting temporary fill-ins like Brendan Malone; in-season replacements had to total 30 games at the helm to be counted.) Only four teams have gone the (short) span without a coaching change (Washington, San Antonio, Utah and... the Clippers). If there is a player development system for these non-S.A., non-Utah franchises, it's getting shaken up every other year on average. Add in the propensity to trade youngsters, and exactly one 2003 first-rounder has had one NBA coach his entire career (Chris Kaman). 

Ziller. You had me at 73.  But I'd challenge you on your conclusion: "Long-term development -- beyond getting Maxiell to drop some weight over a summer -- isn't possible on a team-by-team basis in the NBA. There's not enough consistency."

As much as I'd like to empathize with the Bucks' asst, how have other teams succeeded where they have failed?  You see, the coaching carousel is not an NBA-only issue.  Bad player development is not an NBA-only issue.  Just try listening to SportsTalk radio in Chicago since the Marlins-Tigers deal.  Let's justCoachingcarousel say the windy city ain't happy.  The Sox farm system ranks 29th in the MLB.  They're talking about throwing $15mil at Aaron Rowan because they don't have the young'uns to trade for talent.  Their GM Kenny Williams has been accused of overhyping his prospects and losing all cred in the baseball world. 

Conclusion: Although it may be particularly tricky in the NBA, player development should be the counterweight to the coaching carousel.  For every time a fan or an "expert" petitions for firing the coach or the GM, we need to also take a step back and place more value on consistency, stability, and the time to create the right culture.

Let's keep up the world-wide-convo! Love to hear some more thoughts.

December 05, 2007

Raising 'Em Right: Developing Young Talent in the Lig

Jalowiec_3 Solidarity_polandMrhappyVenus
    Mandela Lf_potatohead10 Kissinger_and_tho_edited   7thheaven_edited_4

As a Detroit native, I'm all shits and giggles since about 6pm last night.  And hang in there non-mlb fans, I'm getting to the NBA-ramifications soon.  But, damn son!  Perhaps the trade of the young century (certainly could make the case for baseball.)  And its all thanks to owner Mike Ilitch and the GM, the big double D.   When Ilitch hired Dombrowski, they made two priorities:

1) Overpay a free agent to begin to build a nucleus for other players to want to come to the Tigers (Pudge signing.)

2) Invest boatloads in the farm system.

#2 is why this trade happened.  Not only have the Tigers scouted the bait to make this big deal, theyCanadagdp developed that bait.  And that's the beauty of this trade.  It surpasses the satisfaction of throwing the equivalent of Canada's GDP at a free agent.  The Tigers made this deal not because they had the most money, but because they had drafted and developed prospects.  Gets me giddy just typing that sentence! 

So, NBA?  It gots me thinking.  The focus on developing young talent is an obsession with baseball fans.  Because of the minor league structure, teams are expected to change their fortunes by developing young talent.  Cases in point: Oakland, Minnie, Marlins...but also the biggies like Bostone and the Yanks.

But for all the talk of potential and upside, there's relatively little breakdown on the national level of NBA teams' abilities to raise their young.  When rookie rankings are written, they focus on the players' abilities.  Not on teams' successful handling of their young'uns. 

Maturation Development analysis remains at the local level.  That is, we all have a thoughtful opinion on how our local teams develop their young players, but don't have such a clear sense for other teams.   And no matter how many games you catch on the Pass, you only get a sip of that local flava: the reportage on the draftees in the D-League, the young'uns in the weight room, the Slovenian coach shipped in to teach post-moves..Braindevelopyouth_2.

So for me, I  have a pretty developed opinion of my birthteam Pistons and of the clubs residing in the cities I've lived in over the last few years.  But the Bucks? I could bullshit something quite passable, but really have no clue the prevailing local opinion in Waukee.  What's more, it's a complicated amalgamation of factors: head/asst/specialty coaching, gm'ing, scouting, drafting, investment in d-league affiliates, the right mix of vet leadership, owners' patience, curfews, minute management...endless.

Key question, should we credit Jerry West as the master of the draft-day-sleeper or as the master at building an organization that develops those players?

I'm hoping to get some analyses from readers, maybe even compile a list of assessments of how well NBA teams do at developing talent. Here's a lay-down of my own.  Look to follow this with an update later on the Baby Bulls:Darko2

Detroit Pistons:
The national discussion of Pistons' development usually b-lines to the Darko Debacle.  No doubt one of the worst draftees in NBA history, but as evidence gathers, the Darko question Darkomay be more about character (read: insatiable rage) than talent.  [An issue that much of the national media has continued to ignore.] And clearly an issue the scouts should have discovered before pumping millions into the "Serbian Ganster".

[On a side note, I never found the translation for the "Venomous Tirade," so I asked my Bosnian friend for an assist.  Click here for a basic translation (It ain't pretty.)]

More importantly, the Darko Debacle has overshadowed the Pistons' premier record of developing their young players.  The maturations of Tayshaun and Rip into legit all-star caliber players speak for themselves. Jmax_2 The emergence of the Maxiell Experience is even more remarkable. Usually, Joe D gets cred for drafting well in the late rounds.  But from a local perspective, it has been clear that Maxiell has been handled ideally: surrounded by vets (esp the under-appreciated Coach Sheed), given practice time to hone his skills, never rushed onto the floor, convinced to lose 25 lbs over the summer, worked on his midrange game, and now, in his third year, only after earning his minutes, is he getting significant play.  Credit to Jason for his hard-work/no-nonsense 'tude.  Credit to Joe D for identifying a talented/lunchbox player AND for patiently investing in Maxiell's skeels.  Most importantly, for not pushing Max to prove himself in his first two years. 

Now, the same process seems on course for Amir Johnson.  Here's the last high school player ever selected in the draft who is getting the play that Jason got a year ago (read: not much.)  Despite D-fans' obsessive calls for more play for Amir, Joe D and Flip continue to be patient.  And, according to their track record, that patience should pay off next year.

Of course, it was a luxury for the Pistons to not need Jason or Amir on the floor in the last two seasons.  But the counterargument is just as salient: the difficulty for a Power Team like the Pistons to satiate young players when those draftees don't get any play.  It's a tricky balance.  The rise of TayTay, Rip, and now the Max put the Pistons at a premier development level.

[Update: Raising 'Em Right: The Conversation Begins.]

November 24, 2007

Ode to Jamario Moon

JamarioMoondancepostersYes, lovely Jamario Moon! if thou so mildly   bright        
Dost rouse, yet surely in thy own despite,
To fiercer mood the phrenzy-stricken brain,
Let me a compensating faith maintain;
That there's a sensitive, a tender, part
Which thou canst touch in every human heart,
For healing and composure.

-- William Wordsworh, 1835

November 20, 2007

Confession.

Darft_1

I love all things NBA Draft.  I love the previews.  I love the build-up. 
The potential and upside.Potential_2  The next-Next.  The stock watch. The oh-no-he-di'n't-do-that-in-high-school.  The 5 inch summer growth spurt.  The mysterious Euros.  Grown men cheerin over pingpongs.  The tourney surprise.  The blingin' suits.  The cryin babies' mamas.  The "and he's here with his brother, who is now a...[cut to commercial.]"  The MA/D (moustache attempts per draft.)  The Master of Sternomonies.  Bilas makin SAS sound like a fool.  The mandatory Spike Lee "knowing nod."  The draft night trade bombshells.  The hat-swapping dances.  The Stu interviewing non-English speaking 18-year-ohs.  And young men comporting themselves well. 

Love looking back months/years later to see how potential has developed, how upside turned out andDraft_2 not.  If anyone can unearth some vintage previews from drafts of yore, hit me up.

So, happy to see the NBA Draft'a'thon beginning on the Espin. 

Chad Ford: Preview,   Top 100

Draft_3 Note: my favorite draft website - nbadraft.net

                                                          

        Draft_4         Draft_5

November 11, 2007

I Will Remember This Day

Today was the day I first heard the name Derrick Rose.

Drose_3  
the dunk(s)

sideclicks

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